Sub-Zero Politics

    Today marks the 83rd Anniversary of the iconic First State House opening (in Miramar, 18 Sep 1937), when Mickey Savage, Semple, Lee & various other leading Labour Cabinet Ministers famously delivered decidedly cumbersome-looking furniture through a cheering crowd into the newly-built State House at 12 Fife Lane. It's probably widely assumed that no-one who attended the official opening ceremony all those years ago is still alive today, certainly the crowd was composed almost entirely of adults, with very few kids or teens there to witness the historic occassion. However, my Mother (then 7, now 90) and surviving Aunty (then 5, now 88) certainly attended the opening & are still alive & kicking - they may very well be the last of the attendees still around. Over the last week or so, they've both been speculating on this possibility and reminiscing on the event itself & its surrounding context.      Broader Context   My Grandmother was a guest at the op

(1) TV1 Polls conducted at same stage during First Term of New Govt (Released as close to the 20.5 Month mark as possible) In order of  Strongest to Weakest PM lead over Oppo Ldr Post-2017 (Colmar Brunton Early June 2019) PM Ardern 45% Oppo Bridges 5% Other Collins 6% Other Peters 5% PM Lead over Oppo Ldr 40 points Post-2008 (Colmar Brunton Early August 2010) PM Key 45% Oppo Goff 9% Other Clark 3% Other Peters 3% PM Lead over Oppo Ldr 36 points Post-1999 (Colmar Brunton Mid August 2001) PM Clark 38% Oppo Shipley 14% Other English 5% Other Peters 3% Other Anderton 3% PM Lead over Oppo Ldr 24 points Post-1984 (Heylen Early April 1986) PM Lange 31% Oppo Bolger 13% Other Muldoon 19% Other Quigley 4% Other McLay 1% PM Lead over Oppo Ldr 18 points Post-1990 (Heylen Early July 1992) PM Bolger 13% Oppo Moore 17% Other Peters 23% Oppo Ldr Lead over PM 4 points ( Other Lead over PM 10 points) Summa

All Capital Gains Tax Polls 2011-2019: In reverse chronological order       TV1 Colmar Brunton (February 2019) Would you Support or Oppose the Capital Gains Tax if there was a Cut in Personal Income Tax ? Support 46% Oppose 41% Unsure 13%       Newshub Reid Research (February 2019) Do you Support or Oppose the Government imposing a Capital Gains Tax ? Support 32% Oppose 54% Unsure 14% Labour Voters      (Support 44% / Oppose 42%) National Voters    (Support 19% / Oppose 73%)       Herald-ZB-Kantar TNS (August 2017) What best fits your general view on a Capital Gains Tax ? Support 35% Oppose 26% Neutral 32% Unsure   8% Breakdowns ( Source: Herald article )       TV1 Colmar Brunton (May 2015) In last Thursday's Budget, the Government announced measures to strengthen tax rules on property transactions, and to help Inland Revenue enforce them. These include: (1) A ta

NZF support in Colmar Brunton Polls (same point after each General Election since 1996) Post-1996 Election ........................ Poll ......... Result at Following Election ...... Diff 16 Feb 1998 .... 1% ........................ 4.3% .......................... + 3.3 (Context: Decision to go into Coalition with Nats widely considered unpopular with majority of NZF voters / 1997 extravagant spending scandal / Congenial Bolger replaced by hostile Shipley two months before this poll and relationship between the two parties deteriorates / Peters takes Party out of Coalition Aug 1998 thus splitting caucus with a number of NZF MPs deserting and propping up a very unstable & unpopular National Govt / Very Significant NZF-to-Lab swing at 1999 Election) Post-1999 Election ........................ Poll ......... Result at Following Election ...... Diff 9 April 2001 ... 2% ........................ 10.4% ..........................+ 8.4 (Context: Implosio