Jacinda & Simon: Preferred PM Comparisons

(1) TV1 Polls conducted at same stage during First Term of New Govt
(Released as close to the 20.5 Month mark as possible)

In order of  Strongest to Weakest PM lead over Oppo Ldr

Post-2017
(Colmar Brunton Early June 2019)
PM Ardern 45%
Oppo Bridges 5%
Other Collins 6%
Other Peters 5%

PM Lead over Oppo Ldr 40 points




Post-2008
(Colmar Brunton Early August 2010)
PM Key 45%
Oppo Goff 9%
Other Clark 3%
Other Peters 3%

PM Lead over Oppo Ldr 36 points




Post-1999
(Colmar Brunton Mid August 2001)
PM Clark 38%
Oppo Shipley 14%
Other English 5%
Other Peters 3%
Other Anderton 3%

PM Lead over Oppo Ldr 24 points




Post-1984
(Heylen Early April 1986)
PM Lange 31%
Oppo Bolger 13%
Other Muldoon 19%
Other Quigley 4%
Other McLay 1%

PM Lead over Oppo Ldr 18 points




Post-1990
(Heylen Early July 1992)
PM Bolger 13%
Oppo Moore 17%
Other Peters 23%

Oppo Ldr Lead over PM 4 points
(Other Lead over PM 10 points)



Summary (TV1 Polls):

PM
Ardern  45%
Key       45%
Clark     38%
Lange    31%
Bolger   13%

Oppo Ldr
Moore     17%
Shipley    14%
Bolger     13% 
Goff         9% 
Bridges    5% 

PM Lead
Ardern by 40 points
Key     by 36 points 
Clark   by 24 points
Lange  by 18 points
Bolger  4 point Deficit



(2) TV3 Polls conducted at same stage during First Term of New Govt
(Released as close to the 20.5 Month mark as possible)

In order of  Strongest to Weakest PM lead over Oppo Ldr


Post-2017
(Reid Research Early June 2019)
PM Ardern 49%
Oppo Bridges 4.2%
Other Collins 7.1%

PM Lead over Oppo Ldr 44.8 points



Post-2008
(Reid Research Early August 2010)
PM Key 48.7%
Oppo Goff 7.4%
Other Clark 2.3%
Other Peters 3.7%

PM Lead over Oppo Ldr 41.3 points




Post-1999
(CM Research Early August 2001)
PM Clark 34%
Oppo Shipley 10%

PM Lead over Oppo Ldr 24 points




Summary (TV3 Polls):

PM
Ardern 49.0%
Key      48.7%
Clark    34.0%


Oppo Ldr
Shipley 10.0%
Goff      7.4%
Bridges  4.2%


PM Lead
Ardern by 44.8 points
Key     by  41.3 points
Clark   by  24.0 points


TV3 Leader Performances
(Post-2017 vs Post-2008)
Performing Well or Poorly ?

PM
Ardern: Well 72.5%   Poorly 15.6%   Net + 56.9
Key:      Well 69.9%   Poorly 15.9%   Net + 54.0

Oppo Ldr
Bridges: Well 17.4%   Poorly 56.0%   Net - 38.6
Goff:      Well 30.9%   Poorly 43.9%   Net - 13.0




Although I don't have Clark's precise Leader Performance figure for the appropriate poll (Early August TV3 CM Research 2001) ... various sources suggest her "Performing Well" score was fluctuating in the 50s throughout 2001. She reached her peak popularity in this measure during her second term, following the big Election victory of 2002. I'm pretty sure her highest rating was the 72% well / 13% poorly split in April 2003 (Net: + 59)

So, I think it's fair to say that Ardern's Leader Performance ratings for this precise point into the first term (20.5 months) are unprecedented, albeit (as with most of the measures) just a little ahead of Key.