Old Black Magic of the Silver Fox
NZF support in Colmar Brunton Polls
(same point after each General Election since 1996)
Post-1996 Election
........................ Poll ......... Result at Following Election ...... Diff
16 Feb 1998 .... 1% ........................ 4.3% .......................... + 3.3
(Context: Decision to go into Coalition with Nats widely considered unpopular with majority of NZF voters / 1997 extravagant spending scandal / Congenial Bolger replaced by hostile Shipley two months before this poll and relationship between the two parties deteriorates / Peters takes Party out of Coalition Aug 1998 thus splitting caucus with a number of NZF MPs deserting and propping up a very unstable & unpopular National Govt / Very Significant NZF-to-Lab swing at 1999 Election)
Post-1999 Election
........................ Poll ......... Result at Following Election ...... Diff
9 April 2001 ... 2% ........................ 10.4% ..........................+ 8.4
(Context: Implosion of Nats under English from late 2001 = sees huge slice of 1999 Nats heading off to vote for other (esp minor) Parties at 2002 GE / Significant Nat-to-NZF swing)
.
Post-2002 Election
........................ Poll ......... Result at Following Election ...... Diff
9 Nov 2003 ..... 8% ...................... 5.7% .............................- 2.3
(Context: Nats soar a few months after this poll following Brash Orewa Speech ... & NZF subsequently go into mild decline)
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Post-2005 Election
.............................. Poll ......... Result at Following Election ...... Diff
12-15 Feb 2007 .... 2.2% ......................... 4.1% .............................+ 1.9
(Context: NZF joins ailing Third Term Labour-led Govt (C&S support / Ministerial Portfolio) / Faces Media / Political-generated Scandal over Donation allegations before & during 2008 Election Campaign ... though subsequently cleared)
Post-2008 Election
............................ Poll ......... Result at Following Election ...... Diff
13-17 Feb 2010 ... 1.5% .......................... 6.6% ..........................+ 5.1
(Context: continues to Poll around 1-3% in CBs right up to start of 2011 Election campaign / possibly benefits from increased media attention at height of Teapot Scandal (Key's highly disparaging remarks on elderly voters) ... though NZF final CB Poll rating still well below their eventual Election result / Labour-to-NZF swing)
Post-2011 Election
............................... Poll ......... Result at Following Election ...... Diff
13-17 April 2013 ... 3.0% .......................... 8.7% .........................+ 5.7
(Context: Brendan Horan sacked 2012 / NZF state (in 2012) their intent to work in coalition with parties that would buy back privatised state assets / enter 2014 campaign without providing clear indication of coalition preferences, but Peters raises prospect of Labour-New Zealand First coalition or confidence and supply arrangement late in campaign / Labour-to-NZF swing)
Post-2014 Election
.............................. Poll ......... Result at Following Election ...... Diff
13-17 Feb 2016 ... 10.0% ....................... 7.2% ..........................- 2.8
(Context: 2015 Peters' historic By-Election win in traditionally safe Nat seat / trades barbs with Greens at start of 2017 Election campaign / Rise of Ardern / Political attack on Peters over Superannuation Payments during height of campaign with intent to drive Party & Leader out of Parliament)
Post-2017 Election
........................... Poll ......... Result at Following Election
9-13 Feb 2019 .... 3.3% ...................... ????
Summary: Poll vs Subsequent Election Result
Post-96 .... 1.0 ...... 4.3 .... + 3.3
Post-99 .... 2.0 .... 10.4 .... + 8.4
Post-02 .... 8.0 ...... 5.7 .... - 2.3
Post-05 .... 2.2 ...... 4.1 .... + 1.9
Post-08 .... 1.5 ...... 6.6 .... + 5.1
Post-11 .... 3.0 ...... 8.7 .... + 5.7
Post-14 ... 10.0 ..... 7.2 .... - 2.8
Post-17 .... 3.3
Two NZF spells in Govt: Poll vs Subsequent Election Result
Post-96 .... 1.0 ...... 4.3 .... + 3.3
Post-05 .... 2.2 ...... 4.1 .... + 1.9
If NZF support were to mirror these (Post-96 / 05) trajectories ... then, at the 2020 General Election, the Party would receive:
6.6% (if echoing Post-96 trajectory ... 3.3% Feb 2019 rating + 3.3 point Post-96 rise)
5.2% (if echoing Post-05 trajectory ... 3.3% Feb 2019 rating + 1.9 point Post-05 rise)
NOTE: Choice of Poll data based on time elapsed since Oct 19 2017 Annoucement of Change of Govt (which I think is a more meaningful metric than Sep 23 2017 Election Date). Hence Polls released as close to 16 month mark as possible for previous post-Election periods.